Keçiörengücü 1-2 Erzurumspor FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 18 Feb 2026

📅18/02/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.82
Over 2.5
42%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.17
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
3.53
6+ Goals
9%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 32% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.07
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
13%
5.99
X/2
12%
5.48
X/X
10%
4.58
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
20%
3.56
2/X
11%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
-0.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
38%
Away Win
38%
-0.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
51%
+7.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
49%
-7.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 42%
-5% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.21/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/0.99
+18% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +36%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 76%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.8 Crosses 19.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Keçiörengücü
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.81 xG 1.52
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
308 Passes 253
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2025 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-1 HT 1-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
10.03.2025 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 1-3 HT 0-2 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
27.10.2024 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 4-0 HT 2-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
10.03.2024 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 0-2 HT 0-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
21.10.2023 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-1 HT 0-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
08.03.2023 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-1 HT 0-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Keçiörengücü
1-2
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
0.46 xG 1.80
27% Ball Possession 73%
6 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
165 Passes 575
74% Pass Accuracy 92%
6 Box Touches 39
16 Crosses 42
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Keçiörengücü vs Erzurumspor FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzurumspor FK squeezed past Keçiörengücü 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Erzurumspor FK made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Keçiörengücü had 27% of the ball to Erzurumspor FK's 73%, shots finished 6-15, expected goals 0.46 to 1.80 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Erzurumspor FK's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzurumspor FK led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Keçiörengücü and 1.67 for Erzurumspor FK.

What was the final score of Keçiörengücü vs Erzurumspor FK?

Keçiörengücü 1-2 Erzurumspor FK in the Turkey - 1st Division on 18/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Keçiörengücü vs Erzurumspor FK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Erzurumspor FK win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Keçiörengücü 35%, draw 28%, Erzurumspor FK 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzurumspor FK) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Erzurumspor FK) ✗ Under 2.5
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