Erzurumspor FK 1-1 Keçiörengücü — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 24 Sep 2025

Erzurumspor FK
1-1 HT 1-0
Keçiörengücü
📅24/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Turkey - 1st Division – 2025/2026

Erzurumspor FK vs Keçiörengücü Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
23%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.87
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
4.15
6+ Goals
9%
19.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 31% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.83
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.85
X/1 EV+ ✗
26%
4.53
X/2
11%
7.1
X/X
15%
4.4
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
6%
5.6
2/X
5%
14.65
Value flag · X/1 at 4.53 — our 26% vs market 17.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
46%
+3.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
24%
Away Win
27%
-3.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.4pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Erzurumspor FK v Keçiörengücü — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +14%
1.33/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.41
+15% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
356 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
18.2 Crosses 15.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6

Erzurumspor FK vs Keçiörengücü Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzurumspor FK
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Keçiörengücü
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.52 xG 0.86
45% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
232 Passes 295
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.03.2025 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 1-3 HT 0-2 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
27.10.2024 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 4-0 HT 2-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
10.03.2024 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 0-2 HT 0-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
21.10.2023 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-1 HT 0-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
08.03.2023 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-1 HT 0-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
17.09.2022 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 3-2 HT 2-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L

Erzurumspor FK 1-1 Keçiörengücü — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzurumspor FK
1-1
AWAY Keçiörengücü
0.66 xG 0.87
55% Ball Possession 45%
6 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
369 Passes 299
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
11 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Erzurumspor FK vs Keçiörengücü
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzurumspor FK and Keçiörengücü couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Erzurumspor FK at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Erzurumspor FK had 55% of the ball to Keçiörengücü's 45%, shots finished 6-4, expected goals 0.66 to 0.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.00 for Keçiörengücü.

What was the final score of Erzurumspor FK vs Keçiörengücü?

Erzurumspor FK 1-1 Keçiörengücü in the Turkey - 1st Division on 24/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzurumspor FK vs Keçiörengücü?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzurumspor FK win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Erzurumspor FK 50%, draw 27%, Keçiörengücü 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Erzurumspor FK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Erzurumspor FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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