Southport 0-1 Chester — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.46
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
40%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.71
Over
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.7
2-3
42%
1.73
4-5
19%
3.98
6+
8%
18.85
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.7 — our 31% vs market 29.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+6.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
40%
Away Win
48%
-8.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.2pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southport EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Chester EU Bookmakers 52%
+4% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
1.25/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.92
+3% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +28%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
190 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 207 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southport
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Chester
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.01.2025 Chester Chester 0-0 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
12.03.2024 Chester Chester 0-1 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
24.10.2023 Southport Southport 0-2 HT 0-1 Chester Chester İCON
10.04.2023 Southport Southport 1-2 HT 0-0 Chester Chester İCON
13.09.2022 Chester Chester 1-0 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
05.02.2022 Chester Chester 5-0 HT 1-0 Southport Southport İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southport
0-1
AWAY Chester
44% Ball Possession 56%
5 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Southport vs Chester
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chester squeezed past Southport 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Chester made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Southport had 44% of the ball to Chester's 56%, shots finished 5-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chester led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Southport and 1.67 for Chester.

What was the final score of Southport vs Chester?

Southport 0-1 Chester in the England - Conference on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southport vs Chester?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chester win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Southport 32%, draw 28%, Chester 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chester), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chester) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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