Emmen 1-4 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.52
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
7.38
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.16
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.75
X/1
16%
4.52
X/2
9%
9.77
X/X
11%
6.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.4
2/2
10%
7.0
2/X
6%
15.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.4 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.3pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.3pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.6pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Emmen EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 25%
-20% / -35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.33/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.45
-26% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
389 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 75%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
23.3 Crosses 10.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Emmen
3W-2D-1L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.27 xG 1.05
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
393 Passes 335
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.12.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 1-1 HT 1-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
08.04.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-2 HT 1-2 Emmen Emmen HOL2
27.10.2023 Emmen Emmen 2-1 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
08.04.2022 Emmen Emmen 3-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
22.11.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-0 HT 0-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
18.07.2018 Emmen Emmen 3-2 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Emmen
1-4
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.16 xG 1.66
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 4
365 Passes 278
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 32
33 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Emmen vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II swept aside Emmen 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Emmen at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Emmen had 56% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 44%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.16 to 1.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emmen had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Emmen and 1.17 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Emmen vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Emmen 1-4 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Emmen vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Emmen win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Emmen 50%, draw 25%, AZ Alkmaar II 25%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Emmen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Emmen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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