Werder Bremen 3-1 Hamburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 18 Apr 2026

Werder Bremen
3-1 HT 1-1
Hamburg
📅18/04/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Werder Bremen vs Hamburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.66
No
43%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.8
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.02
6+ Goals
12%
9.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.32
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
19%
4.51
X/2
8%
8.72
X/X
13%
5.22
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.8
2/2
10%
6.45
2/X
6%
14.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.8 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-1.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
23%
Away Win
23%
+0.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.4pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Werder Bremen v Hamburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamburg EU Bookmakers 26%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -2%
1.66/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.72
-28% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / +37%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
367 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 72%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
21.9 Crosses 16.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2

Werder Bremen vs Hamburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Werder Bremen
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Hamburg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.46 xG 1.46
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
303 Passes 341
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.12.2025 Hamburg Hamburg 3-2 HT 0-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
27.02.2022 Hamburg Hamburg 2-3 HT 0-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL2
18.09.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-2 HT 0-2 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
24.02.2018 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-0 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
30.09.2017 Hamburg Hamburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
16.04.2017 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-1 HT 1-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL1

Werder Bremen 3-1 Hamburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Werder Bremen
3-1
AWAY Hamburg
1.74 xG 0.57
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
359 Passes 253
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Werder Bremen vs Hamburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen saw off Hamburg 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Werder Bremen as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Werder Bremen had 57% of the ball to Hamburg's 43%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.74 to 0.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Werder Bremen had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.33 for Hamburg.

What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs Hamburg?

Werder Bremen 3-1 Hamburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Werder Bremen vs Hamburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Werder Bremen 51%, draw 26%, Hamburg 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Werder Bremen), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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