Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals
Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Hoffenheim
AFK
1-3
HT 1-2
Borussia Dortmund
AL1
Hoffenheim 2-1 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics
Hoffenheim edged past Borussia Dortmund 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Our pre-match split (37% / 21% / 42%) promised a tight game; Hoffenheim found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (65%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Hoffenheim had 46% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 54%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 2.25 to 0.84 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hoffenheim's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hoffenheim and 2.00 for Borussia Dortmund.
What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Hoffenheim 2-1 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 37%, draw 21%, Borussia Dortmund 42%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) went the other way.