Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Augsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 18 Apr 2026

📅18/04/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
72%
1.42
Draw
14%
4.62
Away
14%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.74
Over 2.5
64%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
5.82
2-3 Goals
38%
2.03
4-5 Goals
30%
2.48
6+ Goals
15%
5.38
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.65
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
4%
16.75
X/1
22%
4.1
X/2
5%
13.85
X/X
5%
7.93
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
18.3
2/2
5%
10.15
2/X
5%
18.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.3 — our 10% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
72%
Home Win
66%
+5.7pp
14%
Draw
19%
-4.7pp
14%
Away Win
15%
-1.0pp
36%
Under 2.5
33%
+2.8pp
64%
Over 2.5
67%
-2.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.8pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Augsburg EU Bookmakers 18%
-7% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -6%
2.07/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.92
+1% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
400 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 73%
31.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
21.6 Crosses 15.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Augsburg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.39 xG 0.89
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
601 Passes 292
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
36 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.12.2025 Augsburg Augsburg 2-0 HT 2-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
26.04.2025 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 HT 2-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
14.12.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 0-2 HT 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
18.05.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 2-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
13.01.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
03.02.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
1-2
AWAY Augsburg
3.80 xG 1.41
70% Ball Possession 30%
36 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 4
637 Passes 220
92% Pass Accuracy 77%
61 Box Touches 21
37 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Augsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg nicked a narrow win over Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bayer Leverkusen at 72% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 70% of the ball to Augsburg's 30%, shots finished 36-11, expected goals 3.80 to 1.41 — the balance of chances actually favoured Bayer Leverkusen.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.67 for Augsburg.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Augsburg?

Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Augsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Augsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 72%, draw 14%, Augsburg 14%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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