Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Augsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.18
Draw
20%
6.26
Away
17%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
3.94
Over 2.5
63%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
10.1
2-3 Goals
38%
2.56
4-5 Goals
28%
2.32
6+ Goals
16%
3.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.34
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
25.5
X/1
13%
3.81
X/2
5%
25.5
X/X
8%
12.2
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
18.05
2/2
7%
16.2
2/X
5%
24.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.05 — our 13% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
79%
-15.8pp
20%
Draw
12%
+7.5pp
17%
Away Win
9%
+8.2pp
37%
Under 2.5
22%
+15.1pp
63%
Over 2.5
78%
-15.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.2pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Augsburg EU Bookmakers 12%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
2.41/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/2.15
+7% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -2%
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
572 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 73%
38.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
18.9 Crosses 14.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Augsburg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.74 xG 1.01
67% Ball Possession 33%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
537 Passes 217
86% Pass Accuracy 70%
35 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.01.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
03.02.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
13.08.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 HT 1-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
22.01.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 HT 2-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
28.08.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 1-4 HT 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
21.02.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2-1
AWAY Augsburg
2.45 xG 1.17
65% Ball Possession 35%
20 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
675 Passes 317
92% Pass Accuracy 82%
46 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Augsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen edged past Augsburg 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 65% of the ball to Augsburg's 35%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 2.45 to 1.17 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bayer Leverkusen's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.00 for Augsburg.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Augsburg?

Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Augsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Augsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 63%, draw 20%, Augsburg 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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