Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 ES Tunis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 18 Apr 2026

📅18/04/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.11
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
17%
5.21
6+ Goals
7%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.99
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.5
X/1
19%
4.39
X/2
14%
6.93
X/X
13%
3.63
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
9%
5.99
2/X
7%
15.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+0.8pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.0pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.7pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY ES Tunis EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +102% / -33%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
Crosses 14.3
Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
2W-2D-2L
AWAY ES Tunis
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.94 xG 0.78
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
387 Passes 222
81% Pass Accuracy 69%
13 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
12.04.2026 ES Tunis ES Tunis 0-1 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns CAFŞL
08.04.2025 ES Tunis ES Tunis 0-0 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns CAFŞL
01.04.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 HT 0-0 ES Tunis ES Tunis CAFŞL
26.04.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 0-1 HT 0-0 ES Tunis ES Tunis AŞL
20.04.2024 ES Tunis ES Tunis 1-0 HT 1-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns AŞL
22.06.2017 ES Tunis ES Tunis 0-0 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns CAFŞL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
1-0
AWAY ES Tunis
1.72 xG 0.94
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
383 Passes 232
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 11
9 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs ES Tunis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns nicked a narrow win over ES Tunis 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 60% of the ball to ES Tunis's 40%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.72 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.33 for ES Tunis.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs ES Tunis?

Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 ES Tunis in the CAF Champions League on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs ES Tunis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 46%, draw 27%, ES Tunis 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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