Paços De Ferreira 4-3 Chaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 18 Apr 2026

📅18/04/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
45%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.62
Over 2.5
50%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.46
2-3 Goals
42%
1.7
4-5 Goals
20%
4.23
6+ Goals
9%
22.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
19%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-1.2pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.8pp
45%
Away Win
38%
+6.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
58%
-8.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
42%
+8.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Chaves EU Bookmakers 42%
+0% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -7%
1.40/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.23
+15% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.4 Crosses 14.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paços De Ferreira
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Chaves
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.30 xG 1.02
46% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
250 Passes 322
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2025 Chaves Chaves 2-0 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
30.03.2025 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-0 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR2
02.11.2024 Chaves Chaves 2-1 HT 1-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
13.05.2023 Chaves Chaves 2-0 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
08.01.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-1 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR
31.03.2018 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-0 HT 1-0 Chaves Chaves POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paços De Ferreira
4-3
AWAY Chaves
2.25 xG 2.24
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 28
5 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 3
174 Passes 354
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ Paços De Ferreira vs Chaves
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Paços De Ferreira edged past Chaves 4-3 in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 18 Apr 2026. The game was level at 3-3 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 34% of the ball to Chaves's 66%, shots finished 10-28, expected goals 2.25 to 2.24.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chaves lead the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Paços De Ferreira and 1.17 for Chaves.

What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Chaves?

Paços De Ferreira 4-3 Chaves in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Chaves?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 31%, draw 24%, Chaves 45%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chaves) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chaves) ✓ BTTS Yes
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