Uniao De Leiria vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Uniao De Leiria v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Uniao De Leiria vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Uniao De Leiria
POR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
PORLC
Uniao De Leiria 4-2 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Uniao De Leiria beat Penafiel 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Uniao De Leiria as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 42% of the ball to Penafiel's 58%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 2.19 to 1.69.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Uniao De Leiria and 0.83 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Penafiel?
Uniao De Leiria 4-2 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 58%, draw 22%, Penafiel 19%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.