Ashdod 3-1 Hapoel Jerusalem — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
39%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.62
Over 2.5
39%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.9
No
59%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.6
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
4.64
6+ Goals
9%
25.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.6 — our 36% vs market 32.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
38%
-6.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
39%
Away Win
33%
+6.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
58%
+3.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
42%
-3.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.9pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ashdod EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Hapoel Jerusalem EU Bookmakers 37%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
0.99/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/0.98
+10% / +105% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
308 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
11.0 Crosses 18.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ashdod
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Hapoel Jerusalem
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.27 xG 1.14
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
220 Passes 404
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 20
8 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Hapoel Jerusalem Hapoel Jerusalem 1-1 HT 0-1 Ashdod Ashdod İSR
16.12.2023 Ashdod Ashdod 2-0 HT 0-0 Hapoel Jerusalem Hapoel Jerusalem İSR
05.08.2023 Hapoel Jerusalem Hapoel Jerusalem 2-0 HT 1-0 Ashdod Ashdod İSRTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ashdod
3-1
AWAY Hapoel Jerusalem
3.89 xG 0.31
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 9
312 Passes 237
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 9
15 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ashdod vs Hapoel Jerusalem
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ashdod beat Hapoel Jerusalem 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 29% / 39%) promised a tight game; Ashdod found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ashdod had 54% of the ball to Hapoel Jerusalem's 46%, shots finished 20-4, expected goals 3.89 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ashdod and 1.00 for Hapoel Jerusalem.

What was the final score of Ashdod vs Hapoel Jerusalem?

Ashdod 3-1 Hapoel Jerusalem in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ashdod vs Hapoel Jerusalem?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hapoel Jerusalem win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ashdod 32%, draw 29%, Hapoel Jerusalem 39%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hapoel Jerusalem) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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