Banik Ostrava 3-2 Sparta Prag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.03
6+ Goals
11%
9.77
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 29% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+0.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.7pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Banik Ostrava EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Prag EU Bookmakers 39%
+3% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.54/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.81
+6% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -24%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
291 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
10.0 Crosses 17.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Banik Ostrava
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sparta Prag
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.22 xG 1.75
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 8
250 Passes 384
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.04.2025 Banik Ostrava Banik Ostrava 1-1 HT 1-0 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
02.11.2024 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 1-3 HT 1-2 Banik Ostrava Banik Ostrava ÇEK
14.05.2024 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 2-1 HT 1-0 Banik Ostrava Banik Ostrava ÇEK
20.04.2024 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 4-3 HT 1-0 Banik Ostrava Banik Ostrava ÇEK
12.11.2023 Banik Ostrava Banik Ostrava 0-1 HT 0-0 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
11.03.2023 Banik Ostrava Banik Ostrava 0-3 HT 0-2 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Banik Ostrava
3-2
AWAY Sparta Prag
1.17 xG 1.83
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 8
216 Passes 268
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
10 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Banik Ostrava vs Sparta Prag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Banik Ostrava nicked a narrow win over Sparta Prag 3-2. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 24% / 36%) promised a tight game; Banik Ostrava found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Banik Ostrava had 45% of the ball to Sparta Prag's 55%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 1.17 to 1.83 — on chances, Sparta Prag could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Prag led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Banik Ostrava and 2.00 for Sparta Prag.

What was the final score of Banik Ostrava vs Sparta Prag?

Banik Ostrava 3-2 Sparta Prag in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Banik Ostrava vs Sparta Prag?

Before kick-off our model rated a Banik Ostrava win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Banik Ostrava 40%, draw 24%, Sparta Prag 36%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Banik Ostrava) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Banik Ostrava) ✗ Under 2.5
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