Macara 1-1 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-2.2pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.8pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+6.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macara EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.23/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.26
-44% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
319 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 74%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
20.9 Crosses 18.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macara
4W-0D-2L
AWAY El Nacional
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.25 xG 0.93
52% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
226 Passes 213
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
17 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
11.08.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-3 HT 0-2 Macara Macara EKV1
09.03.2024 Macara Macara 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
18.12.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 2-1 HT 2-1 Macara Macara EKV1
06.09.2020 Macara Macara 1-0 HT 1-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
04.11.2019 Macara Macara 0-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
26.05.2019 El Nacional El Nacional 1-2 HT 1-1 Macara Macara EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macara
1-1
AWAY El Nacional
1.22 xG 1.14
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
219 Passes 194
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Macara vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macara and El Nacional shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 24% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Macara had 53% of the ball to El Nacional's 47%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.22 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macara had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Macara and 0.83 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Macara vs El Nacional?

Macara 1-1 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macara vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macara win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Macara 40%, draw 24%, El Nacional 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Macara), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Macara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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