Nacional de Football vs Defensor Sporting Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nacional de Football v Defensor Sporting — Team-Based Signals
Nacional de Football vs Defensor Sporting Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Defensor Sporting
URU
2-2
HT 1-1
Nacional de Football
URU
1-1
HT 1-0
Defensor Sporting
URU
0-2
HT 0-1
Nacional de Football
URU
Nacional de Football 2-1 Defensor Sporting — Actual Match Statistics
Nacional de Football edged past Defensor Sporting 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Nacional de Football had 59% of the ball to Defensor Sporting's 41%, shots finished 10-9.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nacional de Football and 1.17 for Defensor Sporting.
What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Defensor Sporting?
Nacional de Football 2-1 Defensor Sporting in the Uruguay - Premier League on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Defensor Sporting?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 57%, draw 23%, Defensor Sporting 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.