Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 VPS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 18 Jul 2024

📅18/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.47
Draw
19%
4.34
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.89
2-3 Goals
34%
1.94
4-5 Goals
27%
2.79
6+ Goals
12%
7.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
64%
-8.1pp
19%
Draw
20%
-1.1pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+9.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY VPS EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
1W-0D-0L
AWAY VPS
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
21 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 3
11.07.2024 VPS VPS 1-2 HT 0-1 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius AVKL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
1-0
AWAY VPS
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Zalgiris Vilnius vs VPS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zalgiris Vilnius squeezed past VPS 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Zalgiris Vilnius as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Zalgiris Vilnius had 56% of the ball to VPS's 44%, shots finished 14-5.

What was the final score of Zalgiris Vilnius vs VPS?

Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 VPS in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 18/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zalgiris Vilnius vs VPS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zalgiris Vilnius win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Zalgiris Vilnius 56%, draw 19%, VPS 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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