Septemvri Sofia 1-1 Arda Kardzhali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 18 Jul 2026

📅18/07/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.87
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
46%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.62
Over 2.5
50%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
22%
+5.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-3.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
58%
-7.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
42%
+7.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.3pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 54%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
0.85/1.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/0.51
-11% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / +88%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
286 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Septemvri Sofia
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
5 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.03.2026 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 1-4 HT 1-1 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
20.10.2025 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 0-1 HT 0-1 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
07.04.2025 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 0-4 HT 0-2 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
25.10.2024 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 2-1 HT 2-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Septemvri Sofia
1-1
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
15 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Septemvri Sofia and Arda Kardzhali shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Arda Kardzhali at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, shots finished 15-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Arda Kardzhali led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 2.50 for Arda Kardzhali.

What was the final score of Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?

Septemvri Sofia 1-1 Arda Kardzhali in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 18/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Septemvri Sofia 28%, draw 26%, Arda Kardzhali 46%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali)
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