Septemvri Sofia 1-4 Arda Kardzhali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 21 Mar 2026

📅21/03/2026 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
4.13
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
39%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.62
Over 2.5
46%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.06
No
49%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
18%
X/X
22%
2/1
3%
2/2
16%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
21%
+10.1pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.8pp
39%
Away Win
52%
-12.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.8pp
49%
BTTS No
56%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 56%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
0.95/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.14
-1% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -27%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
271 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Septemvri Sofia
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
5 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2025 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 0-1 HT 0-1 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
07.04.2025 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 0-4 HT 0-2 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
25.10.2024 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 2-1 HT 2-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Septemvri Sofia
1-4
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
44% Ball Possession 56%
6 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arda Kardzhali ran out comfortable winners over Septemvri Sofia 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (31% / 30% / 39%) promised a tight game; Arda Kardzhali found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Septemvri Sofia had 44% of the ball to Arda Kardzhali's 56%, shots finished 6-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Arda Kardzhali led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 2.00 for Arda Kardzhali.

What was the final score of Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?

Septemvri Sofia 1-4 Arda Kardzhali in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Septemvri Sofia 31%, draw 30%, Arda Kardzhali 39%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arda Kardzhali), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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