Homburg 2-3 FSV Frankfurt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 18 Oct 2024

📅18/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
31%
3.72
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-6.8pp
30%
Draw
24%
+6.8pp
23%
Away Win
23%
+0.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.4pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Homburg EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FSV Frankfurt EU Bookmakers 26%
-6% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +7%
1.91/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.39
-4% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
291 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Homburg
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FSV Frankfurt
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2024 FSV Frankfurt FSV Frankfurt 0-1 HT 0-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
08.09.2023 Homburg Homburg 1-1 HT 0-0 FSV Frankfurt FSV Frankfurt ALMBÖL
03.12.2022 FSV Frankfurt FSV Frankfurt 1-1 HT 0-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
14.08.2022 Homburg Homburg 7-0 HT 3-0 FSV Frankfurt FSV Frankfurt ALMBÖL
30.04.2022 Homburg Homburg 1-2 HT 1-0 FSV Frankfurt FSV Frankfurt ALMBÖL
05.11.2021 FSV Frankfurt FSV Frankfurt 1-3 HT 0-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Homburg vs FSV Frankfurt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FSV Frankfurt nicked a narrow win over Homburg 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Homburg at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Homburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Homburg and 0.83 for FSV Frankfurt.

What was the final score of Homburg vs FSV Frankfurt?

Homburg 2-3 FSV Frankfurt in the Germany - Regional League on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Homburg vs FSV Frankfurt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Homburg 46%, draw 30%, FSV Frankfurt 23%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Homburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Homburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ALMBÖL More Germany - Regional League
18 Oct 2024
00:00 Würzburger Kickers vs Schweinfurt Analysis →
00:00 Bayreuth vs Wacker Burghausen Analysis →
00:00 Freiburg II vs Eintracht Trier Analysis →
00:00 Carl Zeiss Jena vs Hertha Berlin II Analysis →
00:00 Chemie Leipzig vs Eilenburg Analysis →
00:00 Wuppertaler SV vs Köln II Analysis →