Bourg en Bresse 01 2-1 Aubagne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 18 Oct 2024

Bourg en Bresse 01
2-1 HT 1-0
Aubagne
📅18/10/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - National League 1 – 2024/2025

Bourg en Bresse 01 vs Aubagne Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.62
Over 2.5
47%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.56
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.62
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.81
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.45
X/1
10%
4.21
X/2
10%
7.17
X/X
12%
4.06
2/1
5%
28.5
2/2
13%
5.9
2/X
7%
15.0
Value flag · 1/X at 14.45 — our 10% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
58%
-4.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
42%
+4.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bourg en Bresse 01 v Aubagne — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bourg en Bresse 01 EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Aubagne EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +38% / +38%
1.28/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.50/0.00
-11% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / –
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
POST-MATCH Bourg en Bresse 01 vs Aubagne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bourg en Bresse 01 nicked a narrow win over Aubagne 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bourg en Bresse 01 as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

What was the final score of Bourg en Bresse 01 vs Aubagne?

Bourg en Bresse 01 2-1 Aubagne in the France - National League 1 on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bourg en Bresse 01 vs Aubagne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bourg en Bresse 01 win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Bourg en Bresse 01 43%, draw 28%, Aubagne 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bourg en Bresse 01) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bourg en Bresse 01) ✗ Under 2.5
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