Colchester 3-1 Harrogate Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.15
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.39
6+ Goals
11%
13.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.13
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.7
X/1
24%
4.14
X/2
7%
10.1
X/X
11%
5.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
23.55
2/2
10%
8.3
2/X
7%
16.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.55 — our 11% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
57%
-1.0pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+2.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.3pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colchester EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 22%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
1.72/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.33
-12% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
304 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 70%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
22.0 Crosses 14.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colchester
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Harrogate Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.49 xG 1.08
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
302 Passes 285
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
25 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.01.2025 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
24.08.2024 Colchester Colchester 0-1 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
10.02.2024 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
21.10.2023 Colchester Colchester 1-2 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
07.01.2023 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-3 HT 0-2 Colchester Colchester İN2
08.10.2022 Colchester Colchester 2-1 HT 2-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Colchester
3-1
AWAY Harrogate Town
2.60 xG 0.28
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
350 Passes 314
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
41 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Colchester vs Harrogate Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colchester beat Harrogate Town 3-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Colchester as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Colchester had 53% of the ball to Harrogate Town's 47%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 2.60 to 0.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Harrogate Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Colchester and 1.00 for Harrogate Town.

What was the final score of Colchester vs Harrogate Town?

Colchester 3-1 Harrogate Town in the England - 2nd Division on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colchester vs Harrogate Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Colchester win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Colchester 56%, draw 23%, Harrogate Town 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Colchester), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Colchester) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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