Burnley 2-0 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 18 Oct 2025

Burnley
2-0 HT 1-0
Leeds United
📅18/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Burnley vs Leeds United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.5
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
4.47
6+ Goals
9%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.39
1/2
9%
29.5
1/X
6%
14.55
X/1
13%
6.74
X/2
10%
4.69
X/X
17%
4.02
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
17%
3.1
2/X
7%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
28%
+5.6pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.2pp
36%
Away Win
43%
-7.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burnley v Leeds United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burnley EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +16%
1.39/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.19
-11% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +47%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
305 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
20.9 Crosses 17.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6

Burnley vs Leeds United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burnley
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Leeds United
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.96 xG 1.37
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
245 Passes 385
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.01.2025 Burnley Burnley 0-0 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
14.09.2024 Leeds United Leeds United 0-1 HT 0-1 Burnley Burnley İNCL
02.01.2022 Leeds United Leeds United 3-1 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
29.08.2021 Burnley Burnley 1-1 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNP
15.05.2021 Burnley Burnley 0-4 HT 0-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNP
27.12.2020 Leeds United Leeds United 1-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP

Burnley 2-0 Leeds United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley
2-0
AWAY Leeds United
0.45 xG 2.63
31% Ball Possession 69%
4 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
221 Passes 526
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
3 Box Touches 44
7 Crosses 47
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Burnley vs Leeds United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burnley beat Leeds United 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 31% / 36%) promised a tight game; Burnley found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Burnley had 31% of the ball to Leeds United's 69%, shots finished 4-19, expected goals 0.45 to 2.63 — on chances, Leeds United could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leeds United led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Burnley and 1.50 for Leeds United.

What was the final score of Burnley vs Leeds United?

Burnley 2-0 Leeds United in the England - Premier League on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burnley vs Leeds United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Burnley 34%, draw 31%, Leeds United 36%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Leeds United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leeds United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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