Nottingham Forest 0-3 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
47%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
3.43
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.3
6+ Goals
11%
12.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.68
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
24.85
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
8%
6.72
X/2
13%
5.11
X/X
15%
4.82
2/1
5%
31.5
2/2
25%
3.06
2/X
6%
12.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.85 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
31%
-4.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
47%
Away Win
43%
+4.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.1pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 46%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +13%
1.30/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.33
+36% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +2%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
302 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 81%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.2
19.0 Crosses 16.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Chelsea
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.18 xG 1.60
32% Ball Possession 68%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
213 Passes 550
73% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.05.2025 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-1 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
06.10.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
11.05.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-3 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
02.09.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
13.05.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 2-2 HT 0-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
01.01.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
0-3
AWAY Chelsea
2.20 xG 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
367 Passes 397
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea swept aside Nottingham Forest 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 50% of the ball to Chelsea's 50%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 2.20 to 1.67 — the balance of chances actually favoured Nottingham Forest.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.33 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?

Nottingham Forest 0-3 Chelsea in the England - Premier League on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 27%, draw 26%, Chelsea 47%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✗ BTTS Yes
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