Independiente Medellin 3-1 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-9.2pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.1pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+7.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.0pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 20%
+3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -12%
1.32/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.33
-8% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
360 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 74%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
18.7 Crosses 11.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
1W-4D-0L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.75 xG 1.18
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
340 Passes 200
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
04.09.2025 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 1-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOLK
27.08.2025 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOLK
28.04.2025 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
27.08.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 2-2 HT 2-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
18.02.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 0-2 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
3-1
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.37 xG 0.55
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
433 Passes 318
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 13
10 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza CEIF
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Independiente Medellin beat Fortaleza CEIF 3-1 in the Colombia - Primera on 18 Oct 2025. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 57% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 43%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.37 to 0.55.

Across their last 5 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin have the better of it with 1 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.00 for Fortaleza CEIF.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Independiente Medellin 3-1 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 52%, draw 25%, Fortaleza CEIF 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✗ Under 2.5
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