Deportivo Pasto 2-2 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
4.48
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
59%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.74
Over 2.5
57%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.96
No
44%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
11%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
36%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
19%
-0.6pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.7pp
59%
Away Win
55%
+4.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
54%
-10.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
46%
+10.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.9pp
44%
BTTS No
53%
-8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 58%
-21% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +7%
0.63/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/0.90
-37% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -15%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
285 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 81%
10.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
15.0 Crosses 14.2
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Pasto
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.71 xG 1.42
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
283 Passes 357
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.04.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
06.12.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
24.11.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
06.10.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
25.03.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
25.08.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Pasto
2-2
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.21 xG 1.24
60% Ball Possession 40%
22 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
318 Passes 198
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 11
7 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Pasto and Atletico Nacional couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Atletico Nacional at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Deportivo Pasto had 60% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 40%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 1.21 to 1.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 1.83 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?

Deportivo Pasto 2-2 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Pasto 19%, draw 22%, Atletico Nacional 59%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atletico Nacional) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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