Leones Negros Udeg 0-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.49
Draw
19%
4.19
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.29
Over 2.5
58%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.73
No
42%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
63%
+0.6pp
19%
Draw
21%
-1.9pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+1.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
54%
+4.4pp
42%
BTTS No
46%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
2.14/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/2.12
+10% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
411 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leones Negros Udeg
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
16.03.2025 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-2 HT 1-2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
30.09.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-2 HT 2-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
15.02.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-3 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
04.08.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 5-0 HT 4-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
16.03.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-2 HT 0-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
26.06.2022 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 0-0 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leones Negros Udeg
0-1
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Leones Negros Udeg vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alebrijes de Oaxaca nicked a narrow win over Leones Negros Udeg 1-0 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Leones Negros Udeg carried 63% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leones Negros Udeg had 64% of the ball to Alebrijes de Oaxaca's 36%, shots finished 15-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Leones Negros Udeg and 1.00 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.

What was the final score of Leones Negros Udeg vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Leones Negros Udeg 0-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Mexico - Primera A on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leones Negros Udeg vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Leones Negros Udeg 63%, draw 19%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 18%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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