Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 Cancun FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.82
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.81
No
57%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
51%
+3.7pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.7pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-1.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.2pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Cancun FC EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +3%
1.74/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.54
+7% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
296 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.2 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cancun FC
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
5 Corners 4
18.01.2025 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 1-0 Cancun FC Cancun FC MEK2
04.08.2024 Cancun FC Cancun FC 2-0 HT 2-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
20.03.2024 Cancun FC Cancun FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
31.08.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-0 HT 1-0 Cancun FC Cancun FC MEK2
22.03.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-0 HT 0-0 Cancun FC Cancun FC MEK2
12.10.2022 Cancun FC Cancun FC 1-2 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
1-2
AWAY Cancun FC
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 7
10 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Cancun FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cancun FC squeezed past Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Tepatitlán de Morelos at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tepatitlán de Morelos had 66% of the ball to Cancun FC's 34%, shots finished 17-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 1.00 for Cancun FC.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Cancun FC?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 Cancun FC in the Mexico - Primera A on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Cancun FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 54%, draw 23%, Cancun FC 23%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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