Lesotho vs Burkina Faso Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lesotho v Burkina Faso — Team-Based Signals
Lesotho vs Burkina Faso Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Burkina Faso
AFUK
3-1
HT 2-0
Lesotho
AFUK
0-1
HT 0-1
Burkina Faso
AFUK
2-0
HT 1-0
Lesotho
AFUK
Lesotho 3-0 Burkina Faso — Actual Match Statistics
Lesotho ran out comfortable winners over Burkina Faso 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Burkina Faso at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, no to both teams scoring (60%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.
On the day, Lesotho had 46% of the ball to Burkina Faso's 54%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.81 to 0.45.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Burkina Faso led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Lesotho and 1.80 for Burkina Faso.
What was the final score of Lesotho vs Burkina Faso?
Lesotho 3-0 Burkina Faso in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 18/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lesotho vs Burkina Faso?
Before kick-off our model rated an Burkina Faso win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Lesotho 20%, draw 25%, Burkina Faso 55%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Burkina Faso), Under 2.5 went the other way.