Lesotho 3-0 Burkina Faso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 18 Nov 2024

📅18/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.13
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
55%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.52
Over 2.5
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.19
No
60%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.32
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
5.35
6+ Goals
7%
33.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
21%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
30%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
21%
-0.2pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.2pp
55%
Away Win
52%
+3.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.0pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lesotho EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Burkina Faso EU Bookmakers 56%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
0.76/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.48/0.16
-10% / +66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -63% / +150%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
255 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
15.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
12.3 Crosses 7.0
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lesotho
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Burkina Faso
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
0.89 xG 2.80
46% Ball Possession 54%
5 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 6
324 Passes 388
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 29
5 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
10.09.2024 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso 3-1 HT 2-0 Lesotho Lesotho AFUK
16.11.2020 Lesotho Lesotho 0-0 HT 0-0 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso AFUK
12.11.2020 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso 3-1 HT 2-0 Lesotho Lesotho AFUK
15.11.2014 Lesotho Lesotho 0-1 HT 0-1 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso AFUK
06.09.2014 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso 2-0 HT 1-0 Lesotho Lesotho AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lesotho
3-0
AWAY Burkina Faso
0.81 xG 0.45
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 8
266 Passes 321
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
9 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lesotho vs Burkina Faso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lesotho ran out comfortable winners over Burkina Faso 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Burkina Faso at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, no to both teams scoring (60%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Lesotho had 46% of the ball to Burkina Faso's 54%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.81 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Burkina Faso led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Lesotho and 1.80 for Burkina Faso.

What was the final score of Lesotho vs Burkina Faso?

Lesotho 3-0 Burkina Faso in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 18/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lesotho vs Burkina Faso?

Before kick-off our model rated an Burkina Faso win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Lesotho 20%, draw 25%, Burkina Faso 55%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Burkina Faso), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Burkina Faso) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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