Burkina Faso 3-1 Lesotho — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 10 Sep 2024

📅10/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
19%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.4
No
59%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.44
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
4.9
6+ Goals
7%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-8.7pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.4pp
19%
Away Win
15%
+4.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
38%
+3.2pp
59%
BTTS No
62%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burkina Faso EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Lesotho EU Bookmakers 18%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.12/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/2.25
-21% / +70% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -43%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 76%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.2 Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burkina Faso
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Lesotho
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
1 Total Shots 0
1 Shots on Target 0
16.11.2020 Lesotho Lesotho 0-0 HT 0-0 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso AFUK
12.11.2020 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso 3-1 HT 2-0 Lesotho Lesotho AFUK
15.11.2014 Lesotho Lesotho 0-1 HT 0-1 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso AFUK
06.09.2014 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso 2-0 HT 1-0 Lesotho Lesotho AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burkina Faso
3-1
AWAY Lesotho
2.80 xG 0.89
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 1
388 Passes 324
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Burkina Faso vs Lesotho
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burkina Faso beat Lesotho 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Burkina Faso as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Burkina Faso had 54% of the ball to Lesotho's 46%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.80 to 0.89.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Burkina Faso had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Burkina Faso and 0.25 for Lesotho.

What was the final score of Burkina Faso vs Lesotho?

Burkina Faso 3-1 Lesotho in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 10/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burkina Faso vs Lesotho?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burkina Faso win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Burkina Faso 52%, draw 29%, Lesotho 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burkina Faso) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Burkina Faso) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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