Heracles 1-0 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 18 Dec 2024

Heracles
1-0 HT 0-0
NEC Nijmegen
📅18/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Netherlands - KNVB Cup – 2024/2025

Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.53
Draw
34%
3.28
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.6
No
42%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.87
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.24
6+ Goals
12%
11.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.24 — our 29% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
3.82
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
12.45
X/1
13%
5.97
X/2
12%
5.7
X/X
14%
4.82
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
18%
3.57
2/X
7%
12.4
Value flag · 1/X at 12.45 — our 13% vs market 5.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
36%
-5.9pp
34%
Draw
27%
+6.8pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-1.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.8pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heracles v NEC Nijmegen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 40%
-42% / -42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +53% / +53%
0.05/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/1.00
-97% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +121% / +55%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
348 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 75%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
19.9 Crosses –
2.4 Yellow Cards –

Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
2W-1D-3L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.00 xG 1.66
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
314 Passes 434
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.09.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-2 HT 1-2 Heracles Heracles HOL
03.02.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-1 HT 0-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
18.08.2023 Heracles Heracles 2-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
29.07.2022 Heracles Heracles 1-3 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HAZ
15.01.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
29.08.2021 Heracles Heracles 0-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL

Heracles 1-0 NEC Nijmegen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
1-0
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.10 xG 1.64
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
567 Passes 397
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
36 Box Touches 32
32 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles edged past NEC Nijmegen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (30% / 34% / 36%) promised a tight game; Heracles found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Heracles had 57% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 43%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 1.10 to 1.64 — on chances, NEC Nijmegen could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Heracles and 1.50 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen?

Heracles 1-0 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 18/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated an NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Heracles 30%, draw 34%, NEC Nijmegen 36%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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