Willem II 1-5 Sparta Rotterdam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 18 Dec 2025

📅18/12/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.15
Over 2.5
58%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.56
No
39%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.0
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
27%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
8.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.83
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
13%
7.16
X/2
7%
5.06
X/X
9%
5.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
30.5
2/2
29%
2.84
2/X
8%
13.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.5 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+3.4pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-1.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
43%
-0.7pp
58%
Over 2.5
57%
+0.7pp
61%
BTTS Yes
60%
+0.7pp
39%
BTTS No
40%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 49%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -42% / -42%
1.23/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/0.84
-14% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -85% / -28%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
321 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 81%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
13.0 Crosses 24.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.39 xG 1.41
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
324 Passes 390
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
9 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.07.2025 Willem II Willem II 3-1 HT 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HAZ
02.03.2025 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
31.08.2024 Willem II Willem II 1-2 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
27.07.2024 Willem II Willem II 2-4 HT 1-4 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HAZ
29.07.2023 Willem II Willem II 0-3 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HAZ
13.02.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
1-5
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
2.10 xG 2.70
37% Ball Possession 63%
15 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
263 Passes 490
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
16 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sparta Rotterdam cruised past Willem II 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sparta Rotterdam as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, Willem II had 37% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 63%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 2.10 to 2.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Rotterdam led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Willem II and 2.50 for Sparta Rotterdam.

What was the final score of Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Willem II 1-5 Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 18/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Willem II 33%, draw 23%, Sparta Rotterdam 44%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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