Willem II 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
48%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
34%
-7.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
48%
Away Win
41%
+6.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.4pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 45%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.54/3.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.96/1.57
+5% / -58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +98% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
351 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
Crosses 21.0
Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.37 xG 1.39
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
336 Passes 356
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
10 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2025 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
31.08.2024 Willem II Willem II 1-2 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
27.07.2024 Willem II Willem II 2-4 HT 1-4 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HAZ
29.07.2023 Willem II Willem II 0-3 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HAZ
13.02.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
06.11.2021 Willem II Willem II 0-3 HT 0-2 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
3-1
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II saw off Sparta Rotterdam 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sparta Rotterdam at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Willem II had 47% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 53%, shots finished 10-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Rotterdam led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Willem II and 2.83 for Sparta Rotterdam.

What was the final score of Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Willem II 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam in the Friendlies on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Willem II 26%, draw 26%, Sparta Rotterdam 48%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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