Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Celta Vigo v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals
Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Celta Vigo 1-2 Athletic Bilbao — Actual Match Statistics
Athletic Bilbao nicked a narrow win over Celta Vigo 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Celta Vigo had 59% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 41%, shots finished 3-14, expected goals 0.59 to 1.83 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Athletic Bilbao's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.67 for Athletic Bilbao.
What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao?
Celta Vigo 1-2 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao?
Before kick-off our model rated an Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 31%, draw 29%, Athletic Bilbao 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.