Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.19
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.6
Over
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.46
2-3
38%
1.74
4-5
20%
4.48
6+
9%
24.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.24
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
17%
4.91
X/2
10%
6.64
X/X
12%
3.83
2/1
12%
30.5
2/2
11%
5.17
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
47%
Home Win
42%
+5.7pp
25%
Draw
30%
-4.8pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-0.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.6pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osasuna The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano The Market 32%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.28/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.19
-3% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +30%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
287 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
22.9 Crosses 18.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osasuna
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.04 xG 0.82
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
247 Passes 319
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.09.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 3-1 HT 0-1 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
20.04.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1 HT 0-1 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
15.12.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 1-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
14.04.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1 HT 2-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
04.09.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 2-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
12.02.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-3 HT 0-2 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osasuna
1-1
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
0.76 xG 0.80
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
339 Passes 308
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 17
33 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Osasuna at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Osasuna had 52% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 48%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.76 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Osasuna and 1.33 for Rayo Vallecano.

What was the final score of Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?

Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osasuna win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Osasuna 47%, draw 25%, Rayo Vallecano 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Osasuna), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Osasuna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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