Real Madrid 4-1 Las Palmas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
65%
1.18
Draw
18%
6.26
Away
17%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
39%
2.74
Over
61%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
20%
5.96
2-3
35%
2.06
4-5
29%
2.48
6+
16%
5.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.28
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
27.0
X/1
19%
3.84
X/2
7%
29.5
X/X
7%
10.35
2/1
8%
23.0
2/2
6%
26.0
2/X
5%
32.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Real Madrid win — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
66%
Home Win
80%
-14.7pp
18%
Draw
13%
+4.6pp
17%
Away Win
7%
+10.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
33%
+6.6pp
61%
Over 2.5
67%
-6.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.7pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid The Market 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Palmas The Market 9%
-2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
2.30/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/1.77
+16% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +39%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
501 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 78%
39.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.7
18.1 Crosses 10.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Las Palmas
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.69 xG 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
20 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
456 Passes 458
88% Pass Accuracy 88%
38 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.08.2024 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-1 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
27.01.2024 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-2 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
27.09.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
31.03.2018 Las Palmas Las Palmas 0-3 HT 0-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
05.11.2017 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-0 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
01.03.2017 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-3 HT 1-1 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
4-1
AWAY Las Palmas
5.91 xG 1.10
61% Ball Possession 39%
26 Total Shots 6
13 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
521 Passes 292
92% Pass Accuracy 82%
57 Box Touches 7
18 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Las Palmas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid cruised past Las Palmas 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

On the day, Real Madrid had 61% of the ball to Las Palmas's 39%, shots finished 26-6, expected goals 5.91 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Real Madrid and 0.83 for Las Palmas.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Las Palmas?

Real Madrid 4-1 Las Palmas in the Spain - Primera Liga on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Las Palmas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 66%, draw 18%, Las Palmas 17%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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