Sacramento Republic 2-0 El Farolito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 19 Mar 2026

📅19/03/2026 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.37
Draw
18%
4.62
Away
16%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
Over 2.5
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
69%
-2.9pp
18%
Draw
19%
-0.8pp
16%
Away Win
13%
+3.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.3pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY El Farolito EU Bookmakers 16%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
1.10/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.67
-47% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +111%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
391 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
11.5 Crosses 31.5
5.6 Yellow Cards 4.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sacramento Republic
1W-0D-0L
AWAY El Farolito
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.21 xG 0.64
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
263 Passes 209
74% Pass Accuracy 65%
24 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 26
9 Yellow Cards 4
17.04.2025 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-0 HT 1-0 El Farolito El Farolito ABDK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sacramento Republic
2-0
AWAY El Farolito
2.69 xG 0.52
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
20 Corners 4
543 Passes 243
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
40 Box Touches 17
45 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Sacramento Republic vs El Farolito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic beat El Farolito 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sacramento Republic as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sacramento Republic had 66% of the ball to El Farolito's 34%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 2.69 to 0.52.

What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs El Farolito?

Sacramento Republic 2-0 El Farolito in the USA - Open Cup on 19/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs El Farolito?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 66%, draw 18%, El Farolito 16%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✗ Over 2.5
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