Estudiantes De Merida vs Carabobo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Estudiantes De Merida v Carabobo — Team-Based Signals
Estudiantes De Merida vs Carabobo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-1
Carabobo
VEN
Estudiantes De Merida 3-2 Carabobo — Actual Match Statistics
Estudiantes De Merida squeezed past Carabobo 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Carabobo at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Estudiantes De Merida had 41% of the ball to Carabobo's 59%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 2.58 to 0.66 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Estudiantes De Merida's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carabobo led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Estudiantes De Merida and 1.50 for Carabobo.
What was the final score of Estudiantes De Merida vs Carabobo?
Estudiantes De Merida 3-2 Carabobo in the Venezuela - Premier League on 19/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Estudiantes De Merida vs Carabobo?
Before kick-off our model rated an Carabobo win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Estudiantes De Merida 28%, draw 28%, Carabobo 44%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Carabobo), Under 2.5 went the other way.