Osijek 0-1 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.9
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.71
Over 2.5
36%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.88
No
63%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
40%
2.77
2-3 Goals
35%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.88
6+ Goals
7%
17.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 40% vs market 29.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
20%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.9pp
32%
Draw
28%
+3.8pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.2pp
64%
Under 2.5
55%
+9.8pp
36%
Over 2.5
45%
-9.8pp
37%
BTTS Yes
49%
-12.0pp
63%
BTTS No
51%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osijek EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 27%
+2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.33/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.36
+1% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 76%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
24.4 Crosses 14.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osijek
3W-1D-2L
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.94 xG 0.94
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
380 Passes 266
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.02.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
02.11.2024 Osijek Osijek 2-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
18.08.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-2 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
28.04.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-3 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
18.02.2024 Osijek Osijek 3-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
04.11.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 3-0 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osijek
0-1
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.65 xG 1.12
57% Ball Possession 43%
22 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
385 Passes 283
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
35 Box Touches 19
29 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Osijek vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica edged past Osijek 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Osijek at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Osijek had 57% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 43%, shots finished 22-15, expected goals 1.65 to 1.12 — on chances, Osijek could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osijek had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Osijek and 1.00 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of Osijek vs HNK Gorica?

Osijek 0-1 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osijek vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Osijek 41%, draw 32%, HNK Gorica 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Osijek) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Osijek) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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