Istra 1961 2-0 Rijeka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.87
Draw
22%
3.04
Away
48%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.48
Over 2.5
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.27
No
66%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.07
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
13%
5.62
6+ Goals
5%
35.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.07 — our 41% vs market 40.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
3%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
24%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
3%
2/2
33%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
22%
+7.6pp
22%
Draw
29%
-7.2pp
48%
Away Win
48%
-0.4pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-0.8pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+0.8pp
34%
BTTS Yes
40%
-5.9pp
66%
BTTS No
60%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Rijeka EU Bookmakers 52%
+6% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
0.90/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/0.86
+9% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +12%
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
289 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 79%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
10.8 Crosses 19.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Istra 1961
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Rijeka
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.55 xG 1.10
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
258 Passes 294
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
11 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
02.04.2025 Rijeka Rijeka 1-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIRK
09.02.2025 Rijeka Rijeka 0-1 HT 0-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
03.11.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-1 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
18.08.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 4-0 HT 3-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
14.04.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-2 HT 0-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
04.02.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 3-0 HT 2-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Istra 1961
2-0
AWAY Rijeka
0.95 xG 0.70
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
381 Passes 293
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Istra 1961 vs Rijeka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Istra 1961 beat Rijeka 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Rijeka at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (66%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Istra 1961 had 55% of the ball to Rijeka's 45%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 0.95 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.83 for Rijeka.

What was the final score of Istra 1961 vs Rijeka?

Istra 1961 2-0 Rijeka in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Istra 1961 vs Rijeka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Istra 1961 30%, draw 22%, Rijeka 48%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Rijeka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rijeka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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