BFC Daugavpils 4-2 Liepaja — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.68
Over 2.5
53%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.88
No
45%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
12%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
28%
+5.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
40%
Away Win
44%
-3.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+6.3pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Liepaja EU Bookmakers 48%
+15% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -11%
1.74/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.07
+37% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
267 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
22.9 Crosses 23.4
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Liepaja
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.78 xG 1.88
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
160 Passes 378
61% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 37
15 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 3-3 HT 2-2 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
24.08.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
15.06.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 1-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
28.04.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-0 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
05.11.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 2-1 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
12.08.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 2-1 HT 1-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
4-2
AWAY Liepaja
1.33 xG 1.10
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 20
8 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
207 Passes 364
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 31
10 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Liepaja
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils saw off Liepaja 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 26% / 40% — and on the day BFC Daugavpils made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 38% of the ball to Liepaja's 62%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 1.33 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liepaja led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.50 for Liepaja.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Liepaja?

BFC Daugavpils 4-2 Liepaja in the Latvia - Virsliga on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Liepaja?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 33%, draw 26%, Liepaja 40%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Liepaja) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liepaja) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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