Liepaja 3-3 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
64%
-7.5pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.9pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.9pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 19%
-15% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.54/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.65
-13% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +50%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
446 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 76%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
25.9 Crosses 14.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
3W-2D-1L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.60 xG 0.89
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
272 Passes 188
71% Pass Accuracy 63%
31 Box Touches 22
27 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.08.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
15.06.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 1-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
28.04.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-0 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
05.11.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 2-1 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
12.08.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 2-1 HT 1-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
05.06.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-2 HT 1-2 Liepaja Liepaja LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
3-3
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
2.93 xG 1.25
74% Ball Possession 26%
23 Total Shots 11
11 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
576 Passes 154
88% Pass Accuracy 66%
61 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja and BFC Daugavpils couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Liepaja carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Liepaja had 74% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 26%, shots finished 23-11, expected goals 2.93 to 1.25.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liepaja had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Liepaja and 0.83 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils?

Liepaja 3-3 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 56%, draw 24%, BFC Daugavpils 20%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Liepaja) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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