Valmiera / BSS 2-3 FK Tukums 2000 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.18
Draw
17%
7.13
Away
15%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
4.0
Over 2.5
59%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.66
No
59%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
5%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
80%
-12.6pp
17%
Draw
11%
+5.7pp
15%
Away Win
8%
+6.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
22%
+19.6pp
59%
Over 2.5
78%
-19.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
56%
-15.5pp
59%
BTTS No
44%
+15.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valmiera / BSS EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 11%
-11% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -1%
2.26/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/2.63
-2% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -26%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
422 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 71%
36.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.7
29.1 Crosses 10.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valmiera / BSS
3W-0D-3L
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.68 xG 0.99
60% Ball Possession 40%
21 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
361 Passes 218
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
39 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.08.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 3-2 HT 2-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
14.07.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-3 HT 0-2 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LETK
14.06.2024 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 6-1 HT 6-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
27.04.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-2 HT 0-1 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
01.10.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 3-2 HT 1-1 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
21.08.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 0-1 HT 0-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LETK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valmiera / BSS
2-3
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
2.51 xG 2.71
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
392 Passes 211
81% Pass Accuracy 67%
26 Box Touches 29
32 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Valmiera / BSS vs FK Tukums 2000
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Tukums 2000 edged past Valmiera / BSS 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Valmiera / BSS at 68% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, over 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Valmiera / BSS had 61% of the ball to FK Tukums 2000's 39%, shots finished 17-17, expected goals 2.51 to 2.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Valmiera / BSS and 1.83 for FK Tukums 2000.

What was the final score of Valmiera / BSS vs FK Tukums 2000?

Valmiera / BSS 2-3 FK Tukums 2000 in the Latvia - Virsliga on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valmiera / BSS vs FK Tukums 2000?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valmiera / BSS win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Valmiera / BSS 68%, draw 17%, FK Tukums 2000 15%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Valmiera / BSS), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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