Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Nakhon Pathom — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.57
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
4%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
60%
-2.1pp
20%
Draw
22%
-2.6pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lamphun Warrior EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Nakhon Pathom EU Bookmakers 21%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.45/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.63
-9% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +35%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
376 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 75%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
16.1 Crosses 14.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lamphun Warrior
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Nakhon Pathom
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
0.89 xG 1.29
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
194 Passes 208
67% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2024 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom 0-3 HT 0-2 Lamphun Warrior Lamphun Warrior TAY
04.04.2024 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom 1-0 HT 0-0 Lamphun Warrior Lamphun Warrior TAY
28.10.2023 Lamphun Warrior Lamphun Warrior 2-0 HT 1-0 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom TAY
13.03.2022 Lamphun Warrior Lamphun Warrior 3-1 HT 2-0 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom TAY1
31.10.2021 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom 0-0 HT 0-0 Lamphun Warrior Lamphun Warrior TAY1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lamphun Warrior
1-1
AWAY Nakhon Pathom
1.93 xG 1.12
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
253 Passes 170
73% Pass Accuracy 66%
28 Box Touches 6
24 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Pathom couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Lamphun Warrior at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lamphun Warrior had 58% of the ball to Nakhon Pathom's 42%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.93 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Lamphun Warrior had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.40 for Nakhon Pathom.

What was the final score of Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?

Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Nakhon Pathom in the Thailand - 1st Division on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Pathom?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lamphun Warrior win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Lamphun Warrior 58%, draw 20%, Nakhon Pathom 23%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lamphun Warrior) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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