Almeria vs Malaga Prediction — Model Probabilities
Almeria v Malaga — Team-Based Signals
Almeria vs Malaga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Almeria 3-2 Malaga — Actual Match Statistics
Almeria came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Malaga 3-2. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.
True to our pre-match read, our model had Almeria as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (60%) landed.
On the day, Malaga saw more of the ball, 54% to 46%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 1.73 to 0.62.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Malaga led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.00 a game for Almeria against 1.33 for Malaga.
Almeria vs Malaga Result & Final Score
Almeria 3 - 2 Malaga in the Spain - 2nd Division on 19/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Almeria vs Malaga Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Almeria 52%, draw 24%, Malaga 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almeria), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.