Chapecoense 1-4 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 19 Apr 2026

Chapecoense
1-4 HT 1-3
Botafogo
📅19/04/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2026

Chapecoense vs Botafogo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
46%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.2
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.43
6+ Goals
10%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 29% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.28
1/2
7%
24.8
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
8%
7.2
X/2 EV+ ✗
22%
4.78
X/X
17%
4.62
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
17%
2.8
2/X
5%
12.75
Value flag · X/2 at 4.78 — our 22% vs market 16.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
28%
-2.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
46%
Away Win
45%
+0.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chapecoense v Botafogo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 49%
-1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +16%
1.57/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/0.88
+4% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +101%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
295 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 83%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
22.8 Crosses 21.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Chapecoense vs Botafogo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chapecoense
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Botafogo
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.36 xG 0.85
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
285 Passes 303
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 13
28 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.11.2019 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
27.08.2019 Botafogo Botafogo 0-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
15.11.2018 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
27.07.2018 Botafogo Botafogo 1-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
12.10.2017 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
18.06.2017 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-2 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1

Chapecoense 1-4 Botafogo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
1-4
AWAY Botafogo
0.26 xG 1.03
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 4
421 Passes 464
85% Pass Accuracy 89%
9 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 17
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo swept aside Chapecoense 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Chapecoense had 49% of the ball to Botafogo's 51%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.26 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Chapecoense and 1.17 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Botafogo?

Chapecoense 1-4 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 19/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 26%, draw 28%, Botafogo 46%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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