Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vasco da Gama v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals
Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Sao Paulo
BR1
4-2
HT 2-1
Vasco da Gama
BR1
Vasco da Gama 2-1 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics
Vasco da Gama edged past Sao Paulo 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Vasco da Gama as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Vasco da Gama had 62% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 38%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 2.18 to 2.72 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sao Paulo.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.83 for Sao Paulo.
What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo?
Vasco da Gama 2-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 19/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 46%, draw 23%, Sao Paulo 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasco da Gama) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.