Las Vegas Lights 2-2 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
47%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.22
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.01
6+ Goals
9%
9.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.22 — our 26% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
19%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
24%
+4.8pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
47%
Away Win
53%
-6.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.8pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 57%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.27/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.97
+12% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
292 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 78%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
14.5 Crosses 22.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Vegas Lights
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Louisville City
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.35 xG 1.32
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 13
0 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
183 Passes 356
67% Pass Accuracy 82%
5 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.06.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
POST-MATCH Las Vegas Lights vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Vegas Lights and Louisville City couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Louisville City at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

What was the final score of Las Vegas Lights vs Louisville City?

Las Vegas Lights 2-2 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Vegas Lights vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Las Vegas Lights 28%, draw 25%, Louisville City 47%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Louisville City) ✗ Under 2.5
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