Al Gharafa 4-2 Umm Salal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — KATEK, 19 May 2025

📅19/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
64%
1.53
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
16%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under
37%
2.23
Over
63%
1.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.67
No
43%
2.07
Total Goals
0-1
17%
2-3
42%
4-5
30%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
1%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Al Gharafa The Market 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Umm Salal The Market 21%
Great Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Great
2.28 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.34
0.72 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 2.14
Great Attack Strength Great
Bad Defense Strength Great
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
437 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 209 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Gharafa
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Umm Salal
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.49 xG 1.13
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
404 Passes 212
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
33 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.03.2025 Umm Salal Umm Salal 0-1 HT 0-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
18.10.2024 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 3-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
05.10.2024 Umm Salal Umm Salal 5-0 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KATYK
14.05.2024 Umm Salal Umm Salal 2-4 HT 0-2 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KATEK
07.04.2024 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-1 HT 0-0 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
25.11.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 1-2 HT 0-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Gharafa
4 - 2
AWAY Umm Salal
4.09 xG 0.61
63% Ball Possession 37%
27 Total Shots 9
14 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
423 Passes 225
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
47 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Al Gharafa vs Umm Salal
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Al Gharafa took care of Umm Salal 4-2. Half-time: 3-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Gharafa as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (57%) came home.

Under the surface, possession split 63% to 37% in Al Gharafa's favour, shots finished 27-9, expected goals 4.09 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Gharafa had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.83 a game for Al Gharafa against 1.67 for Umm Salal.

Al Gharafa vs Umm Salal Result & Final Score

Al Gharafa 4 - 2 Umm Salal in the KATEK on 19/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Al Gharafa vs Umm Salal Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Al Gharafa 64%, draw 20%, Umm Salal 17%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Gharafa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Gharafa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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