Beijing Guoan 1-3 Shanghai Shenhua — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 19 Jul 2025

📅19/07/2025 · 🕒14:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.07
Over 2.5
42%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.6
No
54%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.91
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
9.28
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.91 — our 32% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.81
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
5%
11.8
X/1
13%
5.23
X/2
8%
7.74
X/X
15%
4.97
2/1
8%
23.75
2/2
17%
5.23
2/X
7%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
44%
+13.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
56%
-13.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
58%
-12.6pp
54%
BTTS No
42%
+12.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Beijing Guoan EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Shanghai Shenhua EU Bookmakers 31%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.01/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/0.86
+3% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / +150%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
11.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
10.8 Crosses 17.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Beijing Guoan
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Shanghai Shenhua
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.97 xG 1.20
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
404 Passes 241
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
01.03.2025 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua 2-2 HT 2-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİNSL
22.08.2024 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 HT 1-0 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİNK
04.08.2024 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 2-1 HT 1-0 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua ÇİNSL
13.04.2024 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua 1-1 HT 1-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
19.08.2023 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 2-1 HT 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua ÇİN
19.05.2023 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua 1-1 HT 1-0 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Beijing Guoan
1-3
AWAY Shanghai Shenhua
0.56 xG 1.95
72% Ball Possession 28%
12 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 2
537 Passes 179
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
31 Box Touches 26
38 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shanghai Shenhua saw off Beijing Guoan 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Beijing Guoan at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Beijing Guoan had 72% of the ball to Shanghai Shenhua's 28%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 0.56 to 1.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Beijing Guoan had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.33 for Shanghai Shenhua.

What was the final score of Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?

Beijing Guoan 1-3 Shanghai Shenhua in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?

Before kick-off our model rated a Beijing Guoan win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Beijing Guoan 41%, draw 27%, Shanghai Shenhua 31%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Beijing Guoan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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