Libertad 0-1 Nacional Asuncion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 19 Jul 2025

📅19/07/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.52
Over 2.5
41%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.2pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.4pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.6pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional Asuncion EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -14%
1.08/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.22
-14% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
283 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
Crosses 13.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Nacional Asuncion
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2025 Libertad Libertad 1-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
30.01.2025 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 0-3 HT 0-3 Libertad Libertad PAR
30.09.2024 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 2-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad PAR
29.07.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-2 HT 0-1 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
22.05.2024 Libertad Libertad 5-0 HT 2-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
18.04.2024 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 1-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
0-1
AWAY Nacional Asuncion
63% Ball Possession 37%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Nacional Asuncion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional Asuncion nicked a narrow win over Libertad 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Libertad at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Libertad had 63% of the ball to Nacional Asuncion's 37%, shots finished 10-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Libertad and 0.83 for Nacional Asuncion.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Nacional Asuncion?

Libertad 0-1 Nacional Asuncion in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Nacional Asuncion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Libertad 44%, draw 30%, Nacional Asuncion 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Libertad) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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